Oil Market Snapshot: First Week of July 2025

Photo Credit: Oil and Gas Middle East

The global oil market is showing mixed signals this July. While Shell cut its Q2 production forecast and OPEC announced a surprising output increase (+548,000 bpd), crude prices have remained relatively stable—thanks to tight supply conditions and strong refining margins. WTI is hovering around $67, with Brent at $69.

Refiners and gas companies are outperforming, while upstream drillers face headwinds. In contrast, Sou

th America is emerging as a bright spot, with Exxon, Chevron, and Petrobras investing heavily in Brazil and Guyana—set to drive 80% of non-OPEC supply growth through 2030.

Key Takeaways:

• Refining & gas sectors are winning in today’s environment.

• OPEC moves still sway short-term prices, despite global diversification.

• South America is becoming a new growth engine for crude supply.

• Shell’s production cut hints at tightening in Q3, while demand in Asia remains volatile.

This evolving energy landscape opens up opportunities for strategic positioning—especially in refined products and stable port operations like Houston, Rotterdam, and Fujairah.

Stay sharp. The market is moving!